Food Retailers and Wholesalers - “We subscribe to a price sheet service but then spend hours of staff time manipulating the data to make it usable.  Can CAS provide us with ingredient price quotations formatted to our specifications as data tables and charts for an affordable price?”  Information without analytics, customized to your organization’s exacting requirements: CAS Price Tracking & Charting Food Manufacturer -  “Our bottom-line can swing into the red if vegetable oil prices spike so what are the price risks this season and what kind of pricing strategy do you suggest to give us cost predictability?”  One size does not fit all.  Recommendations to manage risk: CAS Market Strategies Chain Restaurant Franchisee -  “Our food costs are all over the map creating a nightmare when it comes to budgeting and making good on our profit commitment.  What can we do to minimize ingredient price fluctuations without buying futures contracts?”  Many ingredients are not represented in futures markets so we offer specialized analytics to provide you with a competitive cost control edge: CAS Statistical Buy Analytics Independent Wholesale Baker -  “Can you provide us with a continuing independent analysis of the wheat market and strategies to manage risk?  We don’t like to rely on our supplier’s advice because we have do not share a common bottom-line objective amid an ever shrinking base of suppliers.”  CAS collects, analyzes and recommends timing and coverage amounts for all elements (mill-feeds, cash grain markets, trading exchanges) that works together to guide intelligent forward flour pricing: CAS Market Commentary Analysis & Strategies Retail Bakery Franchise -  “How can we use synthetic vertical integration techniques to smooth food cost price volatility and gain margin advantage on our major ingredients?”  We offer analytics and forward contract integrations that seek to manage price gyrations and provide retailers with a new measure of ingredient cost control that combines CAS Statistical Buy Analytics with CAS Analysis & Strategies

Common Purchasing Issues We Resolve

Pictured above: Vic Turner, Executive Director, Client Advisory Services

Research Our work entails continuous evaluation of agricultural economics research, macroeconomics, crop development and international weather conditions influencing supply-demand and prices. We access world renowned sources from government, private sector analysts and academics specializing in applied economics. Analytics From a data platform of divergent opinions and perspectives on a wide range of ingredient markets we analyze information but uniquely from the ingredient end-user’s viewpoint.  This is antithetical to a commodity trader or broker’s daily gains and losses mindset and in sync with the client’s profit objectives.  We help clients avoid the problematic conflict of interest when assessing information from vendor brokers and ingredient suppliers.

Purchasing Strategies Client’s often only require price tracking and historic data compilations.  We also offer strategic purchasing solutions for those desiring a more comprehensive service.  In these instances our advice is client specific, adapted to confirm to management risk tolerance and competitive market challenges. Expertise Client Advisory Services Companies was founded by Vic Turner, a food industry veteran with over thirty years of multi-disciplinary management experience as a corporate officer and entrepreneur.  He provides clients with the insight gained from hands-on experience managing multi-million dollar budgets over a time period that has seen dramatic changes in commodity markets and supply-chain management techniques.

Ingredient Price Tracking & Charting Never again be concerned that your ingredient price information is accurate, available and timely.  Our clients find it convenient and economical to have Client Advisory Services compile ingredient market pricing data on a daily, weekly and monthly for most major and minor markets providing tracking results that can include contemporary and historical futures, cash and basis quotations.   We package this information in tabular format using Excel and build custom formatted graphics from simple year-over year comparisons to more complex visualizations that combine several price elements like cash, futures, basis, mill feeds and more.  Data folders are communicated to clients on the CAS Cloud at any time interval desired.

Aggregated Commentary, Analysis & Strategies Client Brief reports are published electronically on a monthly basis, customized to contain client-defined food ingredient market information.  These periodic reports condense leading governmental and industry market analytics offering a quick, concise look at factors driving markets.  We then incorporate market forecasts with our take on market price probabilities. Depending upon client preference, we also incorporate our Ingredient Acquisition Strategy  for each market with precise buying recommendations that include price objectives, timing and  contracting time frame shown as tables and in graphic formats.  Importantly, Client Brief reports are unbiased, professionally edited and very competitively priced for use in large and small organizations.

Statistical Buy Analytics Those obscure food ingredients that in many instances are not represented in futures markets are a specialty at Client Advisory Services.  Our in-depth analyses are available on markets as diverse as dry beans and eggs to meat and tomato products. Typically our statistical buy analytics service is requested by clients with long purchase time horizons whose budgeted profitability is at risk from exposure to one or two ingredient markets.  Our work product condenses expert market information, expectations and history and combines a unique food industry end-user based viewpoint complete with statistical probabilities, pricing expectations and objectives.  Specific purchasing recommendations and tracking are available at the client’s request.

Market Analytics & Information Resource The CAS Market Intelligence section presents current, world-renowned market- making information that influences food ingredient prices today and in the future.  We select relevant analyses and studies from USDA, land-grant universities and other important sources to assist supply-chain and other food industry professionals with knowledge that can help shape effective risk avoidance and buying strategies.  Our navigation bar is supported by most popular browsers.  Conventional PC computer users can access pages using our navigation bar located in the header of each page.  Touch screen users will find it more convenient to use links shown in page footers. To ensure that contents and links are current (not cached) please frequently use your web browser’s refresh option. On holiday weeks USDA releases reports one business day later than is shown on some links. Before downloading documents or accessing links please read our website  “Terms of Use”. Bookmark our “Market Intelligence” pages and visit often. The U.S. Department of Agriculture and most academic institutions do not endorse commercial enterprises.  No affiliation between Client Advisory Services Companies and these entities is either expressed or implied.

November Outlook Reports

World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates WASDE Briefing Slides NASS Crop Production NASS Crop Briefing Grain Stocks Sep 2018 Small Grains Sep 2018 SG & Stocks Sep 2018 Briefing

World Agricultural Production Oilseeds:  World Markets & Trade Grains: World Markets & Trade

December Crop Estimates

December  Foreign Agricultural Service Reports

Quick Guide Major Monthly Commodity Analyses December 2018 Each month we update our “Quick Guide” reference so that website users can access some of the most critical studies from government and other sources. Just click on the links to view, print, download or be taken to third- party websites.  Read our “Terms of Use” before proceeding. 

Feed Oil Crops Rice Wheat

Sweeteners Livestock, Dairy & Poultry

USDA/Other Page 1 of 3 WORLD AG OUTLOOK BOARD Monthly Supply-Demand Estimates, Dec WASDE Briefing Slides, Dec CROP PRODUCTION LINK: Crop Progress Weekly, Mondays After 1 PM Pacific Time or Day Later if Holiday U.S. Crop Production Estimates, Dec Crop Production Briefing Slides, Dec WEATHER REPORT LINKS U.S. Ag Weather Highlights, Daily, Mon.-Fri. Comprehensive Weather & Crop Bulletin, Weekly, (Wednesdays @ 4pm ET) World Crop Weather Highlights, Weekly World Crop Weather Summary, Weekly International Crop Weather and Maps, Monthly FEEDSTUFFS Feed Outlook, Dec WHEAT Wheat Outlook, Dec PLANTINGS & STOCKS Grain Stocks, Jun 2018 Acreage Report, Jun 2018 2018 Acreage, Grain Stocks & Rice Stocks Briefing, Jun

LIVESTOCK, DAIRY & POULTRY LDPM Outlook, Dec Chicken and Eggs, Nov Egg Products Monthly, Nov LINK: Broiler Hatchery Weekly Estimates Livestock Slaughter, Nov Poultry Slaughter, Nov Cattle on Feed, Nov DAIRY Milk Production, Nov Dairy Products, Dec SUGAR & SWEETENERS Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, Nov RICE Rice Outlook, Dec Rice Stocks, Oct OILSEEDS Oil Crop Outlook, Dec Go to USDA/Other Reports Page 2 of 3

USDA/Other Page 2 of 3 DAIRY COMMENTARIES & NEWS LINK: Dairy Programs & Policy Website, Mark Stephenson, University of Wisconsin-Madison Penn State Dairy Outlook, Nov AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LINK: FARMDOC, University of Illinois INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOKS Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, Quarterly, Feb LINK: International Grain Council Monthly Market Estimates Farming & Food Brief (1st Week of Month) AUSTRALIA GOVERNMENT REPORTS LINK: Australia Weekly Crop Report   CANADA Canada Principal Field Crops, Monthly, Nov

Academic & Other Information SELECTED USDA FOREIGN SERVICE REPORTS LINK: Weekly U. S. Export Highlights, Thursdays Except Holiday Weeks World Ag Production, Monthly, Dec Oilseeds: World Markets Monthly, Dec Grain: World Markets, Monthly, Dec NOTABLE REPORTS & ANALYSIS 94th Annual Ag Outlook Forum Papers, Feb 2018 Dairy Outlook Grains & Oilseeds Outlook Livestock & Poultry Outlook Sugar Outlook NEWS ARTICLE: Wall Street Used Commodities Storage, Tankers for Unfair Gain,  Senate Panel Finds - Cheyenne Hopkins, Silla Brush and Jesse Hamilton, Bloomberg.Com, Nov. 20, 2014 UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS: Pricing Issues in Agricultural Markets, Paul Peterson, farmdoc daily (4):204, Oct. 22, 2014 NEWS ARTICLE: Getting Big Banks Out of the Commodities Business, Simon Johnson, New York Times, Aug. 8, 2013 Go to USDA/Other Reports Page 3 of 3

USDA/Other Page 3 of 3 ANIMAL PRODUCTS Cattle & Beef http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal- products/cattle-beef.aspx Dairy http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal- products/dairy.aspx Hogs & Pork http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal- products/hogs-pork.aspx Poultry & Eggs http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal- products/poultry-eggs.aspx CROPS Corn http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn .aspx Rice http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/rice/ .aspx Soybeans & Oil Crops http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/soyb eans-oil-crops.aspx Sweeteners http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/suga r-sweeteners.aspx Vegetables & Pulses http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/vege tables-pulses.aspx Wheat http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/whe at.aspx

U.S. Cranberry Production is Up in 2018 There will be ample cranberry supplies for U.S. consumers this holiday season. U.S. cranberry production in 2018 is forecast at 8.63 million barrels (or 863 million pounds), up 3 percent from a year ago. If achieved, 2018 production will be the third largest in history; the record of 963 million pounds was produced in 2016. Wisconsin is the leading producer of cranberries, accounting for about half of total area harvested over the past 3 years. The State’s production represents nearly two-thirds of the national total. Despite some frost damage, this year’s production in Wisconsin is anticipated to be 550 million pounds, up 2 percent from last year and the State’s third largest following record output of 613 million pounds in 2016 (and 602 million in 2013). Larger-than-usual crops are also expected in other top-producing States, except Massachusetts—the second largest producer—where weeks of dry weather limited berry size, causing a slight reduction in output. Ample production and large stocks in storage will likely continue to put pressure on cranberry grower prices during the 2018/19 marketing season (September-August). This chart is based on ERS Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook newsletter, released September 2018.

Go to USDA/Other Reports Page 1 of 3

Annual & Quarterly Archives Tree Nuts, World Mkts & Trade, Oct 2018 North American Potatoes, Bi-Annual, Feb 2018 Hogs & Pigs, Quarterly, Sep 2018 Fats & Oils Annual, Mar 2017 2018 Annual Ag Trade Outlook, Dec 2017 Organic Production Annual, Sep 2017 Hatchery Production 2016, Annual, Apr 2017 Vegetables: Asparagus, Onions, & Strawberries Annual, Aug 2017 World Livestock & Poultry Prod., Oct 2018 Catfish Production, Biannual Jul 2017 US Potato Stocks, Qtrly Jun 2018 Vegetable & Pulses Outlook, Oct 2018 US Dairy Production Annual, Apr 2017 Poultry Slaughter 2016 Annual, Feb 2017 US Coffee Production, Bi-Annual, Jun 2018 US & Canadian Cattle, Bi-Annual, Mar 2018 US & Canadian Hogs, Bi-Annual, Mar 2018

Features

Millennials Devote More of Their At-Home Food Budgets to Pasta Than Older Generations

On World Pasta Day, October 25, it may be U.S. Millennials (more than other age groups) who celebrate with plates of spaghetti, linguini, or macaroni. Using household purchase data, ERS researchers found that, of all the generations, Millennials assign the largest share of their grocery store (food at home) budget to pasta, with Gen Xers running a close second. Among households earning between $22,500 and $28,332 per household member, Millennials devoted 3.7 percent of their 2014 food-at- home dollars to pasta purchases, Gen Xers 3.5 percent, Baby Boomers 2.9 percent, and Traditionalists 2.8 percent. Across generations, pasta purchases exhibited a negative relationship with income; as households become wealthier, they buy less pasta (which is often inexpensive and shelf-stable), opting to purchase instead more perishable foods like fresh meats and fresh fruits and vegetables. Millennials also assigned more of their 2014 food-at-home budgets to prepared foods and sugar and sweets than other generations—perhaps, in a quest for convenience and time savings. A version of this chart appears in the ERS report, Food Purchase Decisions of Millennial Households Compared to Other Generations, December 2017.

U.S. Crop Information & Data Sets CROP PROGRESS WEEKLY REPORTS LINK: Crop Progress, Every Monday @ 1PM PDT U.S. WHEAT ASSOCIATES LINK: Weekly Price Report, Fridays 5pm ET USDA WHEAT STATISTICS LINK: Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Data Sets Available the Third Week of Each Month ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE LINK: Special Commodity Reports

USDA Graphical Crop Progress & Condition Report An excellent resource published weekly by the National Agricultural Statistics Service that details planting, crop development and harvest cycles for the principal crops grown in the United States.  Download the pdf file for Crop Progress & Condition  and please note this link is available during the crop development period and is updated Wednesdays at 5pm ET.

Worldwide Crop Production Crop status by geography or crop type is available from the Foreign Agricultural Service.  These data are continuously updated.  Click HERE to access this reservoir of pertinent global crop information.

Crop Stats and Food Marketing Data

Decline in Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports to Asia Expected   The latest quarterly USDA Outlook for Agricultural Trade provided its first agricultural export forecasts for fiscal 2019 (October 2018 – September 2019). Globally, U.S. agricultural exports are forecast to total $144.5 billion, a $500 million increase over the fiscal 2018 forecast. At the regional level, however, exports to Asian countries are forecast to decline by $3.2 billion—the result of an expected decrease of $7 billion in agricultural exports to China from the 2018 forecast of $19 billion. Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to be sharply lower because of China’s retaliatory tariffs, which also curb demand for other products, including sorghum, pork and products, and dairy products. The remaining Asian countries are all expected to increase their imports from the United States in fiscal 2019 by a collective total of $3.8 billion. The largest gains are anticipated in Southeast Asia as well as Hong Kong and South Korea. This chart is drawn from data discussed in the ERS Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, released in August 2018.

Commodity Topics of Note Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation and Commodity Price Comovement, ERS, April 2014

Data

Reduced Exports to China in Fiscal Year 2019 May Drive U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance to Lowest Level Since 2007 by Alex Melton and Bryce Cooke In 2016, there were 35,45According to ERS agricultural trade projections, U.S. agricultural exports are projected to total $141.5 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2019, while agricultural imports are expected to total $127 billion. The projections indicate an agricultural trade surplus of $14.5 billion. Unlike overall U.S. trade in goods and services, U.S. trade in the agricultural sector consistently runs at a surplus. The $14.5 billion surplus projected for FY 2019 is the lowest since FY 2007, when the United States exported $12.2 billion more in agricultural goods and services than it imported. As expected, the U.S. agricultural trade surplus depends on changes in exports and imports. While exports have increased in value since 2016, the value of imports has risen at a slightly faster rate, leading to a declining trade balance. This is further compounded in FY 2019 by significant declines in projected exports to China. The forecast value for U.S. agricultural exports in FY 2019 reflects a $3.0 billion decrease from the previous forecast and a $1.9 billion decrease from FY 2018. At the regional level, exports to East Asian countries are forecast to decline by $6.7 billion—the result of an expected decrease of $7.3 billion in agricultural exports to China from the 2018 total of $16.3 billion. Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to drop sharply because of China’s retaliatory tariffs, which also curb demand for other products, including sorghum, pork and products, and dairy. The decline in export value to China is being countered by higher expectations for exports of wheat and horticultural products like fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts. Those products are expected to increase in value by $3.2 billion relative to FY 2018. U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2019 are forecast at $127 billion, $600 million lower than in FY 2018, but higher than all years prior. The high U.S. imports are supported by strong consumer spending and favorable business investments, which are expected to continue through 2019. Among the product categories expected to see the biggest rise in import value are sugar and other tropical goods like coffee and chocolate. Horticultural imports are also expected to rise from the previous forecast, reflecting the U.S. status as a major consumer and importer of fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts. Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: November 2018 , by Bryce Cooke and Hui Jiang, ERS, November 2018

Market Journal - Market Analysis - November 9, 2018 DTN Grain Market Analyst Todd Hultman discusses progress of this season’s harvest and how weather is effecting it. Todd also discusses ag news from across the globe and how it could affect American producers. Client Advisory Services features selected video segments from Market Journal, an educational outreach effort presented by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Department of Agricultural Leadership, Education and Communication and UNL Extension.  MJ  programs give guidance and information to farmers that can also prove to be very helpful to food ingredient end-users who wish to understand strategies on the sellers side of transactions.  Bridget Nelson produces the Market Journal broadcast.

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Thank you for taking the time to visit our website today.  We appreciate your interest in our services.  Our consulting practice was established to serve the needs of all food industry organizations from start-up entrepreneurs to large national companies.  The services we offer add value for supply-chain professionals in a broad range of food organizations. Because we make our services available on a straight-forward, non-compete basis we offer services when an industry segment is available.  We would appreciate hearing from you so that we can contact you when opportunities to serve your organization’s industry segment are available.  Client Advisory Service’s sole objective is managing risk and improving your firm’s profitability, not your competitors.  To this end, we accept only one client in a specific food industry segment.  For example, if your company is a national retail pizza chain you are our exclusive client in that segment.  Your organization’s confidentiality is vigorously safe- guarded.  We are a fee for service organization with no “sheltered-income” or alternative revenue streams that can compromise or distort the advice we offer.  Our mission is straight forward; manage ingredient costs to maximize your enterprise profits not your competitor’s. Our client based is broad; we serve multi-national food corporations, national food industry organizations and local food operations as well as start-ups.  References will gladly be provided upon request.

P. O. Box 3650 Running Springs, California 92382-3650 victurner@clientadvisoryservices.com

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